Provisional rating

Provisional rating is not a universal label with one set of rules. In general use, it describes a temporary estimate of playing strength when there is not yet enough information for a fully established rating. The exact meaning therefore depends on the federation, platform, or pairing system using the term.

In the standard rating system of the International Chess Federation (FIDE), a new player remains unrated until an initial rating can be published. Current regulations require that rating to be based on at least 5 games against rated opponents; results can be pooled across consecutive rating periods covering no more than 26 months, and the publishable initial rating must be at least 1400. FIDE does not label this intermediate stage as an official provisional rating.

The term does appear in FIDE pairing rules, however. In the Dubov Swiss system, a FIDE method for forming round-by-round pairings, if a player has no rating, the Chief Arbiter must assign a provisional rating so the pairing procedure can operate. That figure is for pairing purposes and does not thereby become a published FIDE rating. It is also different from a live rating, which projects changes from recent results.